Commodities investors needn’t fear the Federal Reserve. Raw materials perform best when the U.S. central bank is hiking rates, according to Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which used the findings of a study to buttress its overweight call on the asset class while acknowledging risks to its view.
During periods of rising interest rates, raw materials top returns from equities and bonds, analysts including Jeffrey Currie said in a May 8 report that crunched data going back to 1988 and covered four hiking cycles. The same finding came after a look a tightening cycles in China, they said.
“This makes intuitive sense because the reason why the Fed raises interest rates is that the economy displays signs of overheating,” the analysts wrote. “Strong aggregate demand and rising wage and price inflation are precisely the time when commodities perform the best.”
Commodities have dropped this year amid weakness in crude oil and